HEADING TOWARDS CLOUD LEARNING AND AMBIENT INTELLIGENT HRD

Exponential developments and convergence

In his book “The Singularity is near’, (Kurzweil, 2005), futurologist Ray Kurzweil often refers to how computer power developed in the past and will continue to develop in the future. He expounds upon what is known as Moore’s Law. In 1965 a publication came out by electronics expert Gordon Moore (Moore, 1965) in which he predicted that the number of transistors in each integrated circuit (IC, what we now call a computer chip) will double each year. Kurzweil shows that costs, performance, memory speed and computer components develop according to an exponential pattern. (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 etc. or ½, ¼, ⅛ etc.).




Most consumers have experienced this already with computers and other electronic equipment. But Kurzweil shows us that this exponential development continues further in other areas. He gives the example of mapping out the human genome.
After the project started it did not take long for criticism to follow in 1990. If the job was to be done in the speed of that time it would have taken thousands of years to complete it. Yet the project was finished within the planned 15 years and the costs were halved each 1.9 years from the estimated base pair: initially this would cost 10 dollars but by 2004 it was simply a few cents. Kurzweil calls this ‘the law of accelerating returns’ and points to various other phenomena which also have an exponential progression, such as mapping of the brain, miniaturization and the number of internet users.

Ambient Intelligence: the computer disappears!

From the previous more general futuristic trends we see various areas of application,
one of which I want to expand upon in relation to the future of work and learning. For that application area there are two terms used, namely ubiquitous computing (ubiquitous = existing everywhere) and ambient intelligence (ambient = included in the context). I prefer the second term because the first one calls up associations with computers such as we know them today. I have two reasons for preferring ambient intelligence: it is about intelligence rather than ‘computing’ and the term ambient reflects the character more fully, namely that (invisible) systems are included in the context. In order to talk about ambient intelligence – usually shortened to AmI – a number of conditions need to be applied.:

1. The ICT components have been hidden away as much as possible. By components we mean cameras, sensors, loud speakers, computer capacity, microphones, projectors, keyboards and monitors.
   
   
2. The ICT components are connected to each other through wireless connections.
   
   
3. The software is intelligent which means that it ‘adapts’ by being constantly in contact with the environment and reacts or even proactively takes action, in order to serve the ‘user’.
   
   
   

Even more recent is the digital desk top. Whereas you once had just the physical top of your desk then the digital desk top of your computer was added. The following step is fusion: your physical desk top and the computer desk top are one and the same, such as the application of Microsoft Surface shows us.



In fact every flat surface can work as a (projected) touch screen as Bill Gates himself demonstrates in the Touch Wall.



What we see is that ICT components and the physical surroundings become one. By surroundings we have to also think of the users: also they will wear ICT components on their bodies either in clothing (‘10 smart clothes’ and ‘Clothes that listen’) and, in the future, in the body such as a telephone tooth or a projector contact lens (Power from the people). The fact that ICT components have a wireless connection with each other is already in full swing. Whereas internet was initially a connection between computers it is now a connection between all sorts of ‘things’ in which a computer has been assimilated. The mobile phone, of course, but also your TV, Wii game, the alarm system of your house or office, the central heating but also shortly your refrigerator, clothes, shoes, sports items and, according to Kurzweil, your brain! With this, internet is no longer internet solely for computers but is an internet of ‘things’ which are connected, a phenomena known as ‘The internet of things’. What does this mean for the HRD professional?

Information and communication technology will rapidly develop and will be integrated further in daily life and also in work and learning. For the HRD professional who is ‘not into computers’ this could be a threat if he does not keep up with developments. The new technological developments will definitely win ground but this does not mean that every HRD professional has to become an enthusiastic ‘technology lover’. However it is important to be open to developments and to ask yourself how these could contribute to work related learning and what this means for an effective and efficient learning organization.

Just like in the movies

Most ideas about new technological applications are revealed to us through films. Even though there are often elaborate special effects and computer animation this does not mean that these futuristic ‘gadgets’ do not already actually exist. In Washington there is the National Academy of Sciences, an important advisory body to the American government. One of its activities is linking up top scientists and film makers in the ‘Science and Entertainment Exchange’, to be able to test futuristic ideas with the actual technological status. In this way film makers can ‘play’ with the level of reality in their film. The importance of this, for the government, is to make new technologies more acceptable to a greater public through film. What can appear to be absolutely futuristic in a film could actually already be in existence. One example of this is the film Minority Report with Tom Cruise in which he controls his computer wearing special gloves. A wonderful live demonstration of this is given by John Underkoffler in TED talks



Or we see the fantastic outfits of Iron Man and his opponent which have special powers to protect them.

Lockheed Martin has developed the so-called HULC exoskeleton for the American army in which soldiers can walk further and faster with heavier loads.



And in Japan it is possible to hire the Hybrid Assistive Limb exoskeleton. The HAL enables a person to lift ten times the weight he could lift otherwise. The Japanese government wants to make this available to older farmers to help them in their heavy daily work.



Both exoskeletons pick up nerve signals and support the movement which the user wants to undertake.

Working in a Blended Reality

What ideas are coming out of these developments for the workplace of 2020 and beyond? We will show you a few concepts.

Futurist Marcel Bullinga foresees us all living and working in a ‘mobile 3D media cloud’ that we can control with our personal dashboard which replaces the computer and mobile telephone (Bullinga, 2010). ICT applications will be integrated in tables, walls, floors and various tools which we use in the workplace, making information accessible and easy to share. This has been presented well in Microsoft’s Office Labs 2019 video.



Of course with this technology it does not matter where you are physically: ‘office’ is a ‘setting’ in your intelligent surroundings. In the video it shows how physical production locations are also equipped with various forms of ambient intelligence. Within the health sector there are various projects to equip assisted living concepts with ambient intelligence. This could be a house which registers somebody falling out of bed and unable to get up again, which automatically notifies a caregiver. They make video or audio contact and can see, online, important details about the person in order to be able to deal optimally with the situation (also called ambient assisted living).



Various car manufacturers have developed systems in which transport is faster, safer and cheaper, such as Audi’s Travolution concept.

Future workplace learning: Cloud learning & Ambient Intelligent HRD

We have now seen what technological trends are taking place and what the underlying mechanisms are. Also the possible consequences relating to work have been mentioned. Let us now elaborate on what consequences these can have for learning in relation to work. It is important to keep in mind that learning forms relating to work such as we know them now will also continue to exist in the future and in many cases will be the most effective, efficient and cheapest solutions. The context will still largely determine which learning process can best be used, in terms of organizational type, the sort of work process, the type and size of the target group and the nature of the learning goals.
As I look to the future I want to elaborate on two tracks: firstly what I call the informal track and secondly the formal track. With informal track I mean the learning processes of the learner himself according to his own needs and which are directly, indirectly or totally unrelated to work. The second track is the formal track by which I mean a learning process that is consciously organized and shaped from organizational goals related to work processes. The two tracks do not exclude each other and there will be, in practice, some overlap.

Regarding the informal spoor, it is the image of ‘cloud learning’ which looms on the horizon. The cloud is an internet term for the complex collection of hardware, software and content (information) which collectively forms the internet. This is simplified in the metaphor of a cloud: the internet cloud.

The term cloud computing is becoming more popular at the moment. The idea is that you do not have to buy and maintain all the hardware and software yourself in order to have applications working for you, but that you take the software and hardware which is available ‘somewhere’ in the cloud. You use it as you need it (usually in the form of a sort of subscription) and if you are not using it you do not have any costs or cares



What we have seen in recent years is that there is an exponential growth on internet of content and applications software (apps) which are well suited for, or even specially designed for, learning. There are YouTube (exists only 5½ years!) video fragments in the cloud with clear explanations and instructions which are not only knowledge oriented but are also related to learning skills. There is Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia with explanations in more than 14,000,000 articles in 271 different languages (source: Wikipedia). There are webinars (seminars via the web) which are often offered free for the relevant professions or are paid webinars which are free to follow later. There is also LinkedIn which is a popular professional network. You can ‘link in’ to groups according to specific themes and start a discussion or ask a question and you are bound to receive interesting answers from professional colleagues from around the world.

Some participants share articles or presentations through LinkedIn. Through iTunesU you can download free lectures with image or sound about various subjects from several American universities. Many organizations make part of their product training, such as manuals, Question and Answer lists or complete instruction videos available on internet so that users can learn how best to use their products or learn to solve their problems themselves. There are ‘communities of practice’ (such as the NVO2 HRD-community),  in which professionals discuss issues with each other. Of course there is also the ‘ordinary’ Google, where by asking a clever question you will be surprised by how many useful search results there are. Apart from that there are also Podcast ‘broadcasts’ from audio or video material which you can follow live or download later on. With the popularity of the iPad the number of eBooks will also increase. It is also worth mentioning the website of TED.com (Technology, Entertainment, Design) which makes ‘ideas worth spreading’ available through video presentations of leading thinkers and initiatives in various areas. Games are also a useful way to learn many different things.



For the HRD function and the HRD professional it is good to realize that learning takes place through the use of these possibilities, directed by the user and his own needs. Sometimes this will be useful in relation to work but that is not always the case. The question needs to be asked if an organization or a HRD professional should be steering this and if policies need to be developed. If so a lot is available free of charge why should you not be making use of it? Should you bring in a HRD policy and develop a HRD process that only allows use of the free of charge cloud learning possibilities? That would mean no added costs, which is certainly an interesting idea. I am not going to give you the answers and in the meantime will look at the future of the formal track.

arl Kapp describes in his blog of 8 July 2010 his visit to training centers for a nuclear power plant and a cardiology ward of a hospital. His blog is about formal as opposed to informal learning and he indicates that in both examples the training areas he visited and the training situations given were an exact copy of the actual work processes and their context. According to Kapp, the duties the professionals and specialists performed were highly formalized, going against the usual expectation that they carry out non-routine activities on a daily basis. Especially when it is a matter of life or death it is important that work processes and learning processes are well analyzed, timed and formalized. In training situations the participants’ actions are assessed according to concrete criteria. Kapp finishes with the conclusion: ‘if I want to be sure of the results then give me someone who has had formal training.’

So now I come back to the question if it is possible to set up HRD policy based on the purely informal cloud learning: in many cases, no. If you look only at the trend that organizations are having to adhere to more and more rules with the consequence that personnel have been demonstrably trained and qualified (Licensed to Operate), then we cannot escape a formally organized learning process. Or when – as Kapp shows us – it is a matter of life and death, we then trust the formally organized learning processes. As a traveler, we assume the pilot of the plane we are sitting in has satisfactorily completed his flight simulator training. We trust that the surgeon who performs an operation has been trained to carry out this task faultlessly. But even when it does not concern tasks which are a matter of life or death there are lawful parameters and most organizations want their professionals to be formally trained in crucial work processes. To leave that up to the randomness of informal learning is somewhat naïve.

What does the future hold for formal work-related learning? My suggestion is that we grow towards forms of Ambient Intelligent HRD (AmI HRD). This means that we arrange and set up learning processes stemming from an organization’s need with help from Ambient Intelligence.

The ‘ambient’ aspect means that learning interventions are offered from a situation in which ICT components, work environment and work processes mix. There are two directions possible, one in which ICT components are included in the work environment or the work process. The automatic spelling check of your computer is one example of this: it is ‘hidden’ in your computer and gives feedback in the form of a red line when necessary. A more complex application is the system in which a neurosurgeon defines his ‘work area’ before an operation. On a digital scan of the cranium he marks, with his computer, the best place to open the skull. The system checks the position of his drill and indicates when it is reaching a demarcation area or stops drilling as soon as he has exceeded it. The other direction is that in which ICT applications are optimally included in the work environment and the work process. Then we are talking about learning in 3D virtual reality or with help of a game (Serious Gaming or Simulated Games – abbreviation: Sims). Between the two there is augmented reality in which reality and the virtual world are blended.

And then the aspect ‘intelligent’ of Ambient Intelligent HRD. ICT systems will be able to recognize more and more patterns. That means that both people, their acts, the situation in the work environment or the work process will be recognized. That makes it possible to proffer an appropriate HRD activity, instantly. Tips, videos, simulations, evidence, flow charts, planning trajectories, checklists as ‘pop-ups’ could be given to the employee depending on the task, environment and ‘status’ recognition of the employee in relation to the task (read: competency level). You could regulate this to employee’s own need or you could build in mandatory training segments between various steps, so that the following step can only be done when the obligatory training has been carried out. Another form is that of obligatory training ‘popping up’ when a mistake has been made or is likely to be made. Obviously you can also prevent a non-qualified or non-authorized person from carrying out a certain task and ensure that the employee firstly qualifies by going through a HRD test, qualification and registration process. We have already talked about augmented reality in which a virtual component is added to reality. The Augmented Assembly video shows the best how the applications can be used in learning, by a step for step projected image of how several parts can be mounted in the correct place in the correct order. An interesting intermediate step is using augmented reality with study books. A good example is the Thai geography book which can be used with the webcam together with a special barcode card. On your PC the book is then shown with an additional 3D image of a turning globe.